(Analysis)

Although, according to the November 9 announcement, Russian peacekeepers will remain in Artsakh until 2025, the Kremlin recently announced that it is unclear what fate will await them in the near future. Putin’s spokesperson clarified only one thing the other day: the future contract should be concluded between Baku and Russia. “It is still difficult to talk about what will happen next with the Russian peacekeeping mission in Artsakh, because we are talking about operations on the territory of Baku. We will discuss this with Baku,” Poskov said. According to Russian analysts, the main problem that could prevent Baku and Yerevan from signing a peace agreement is the so-called “Zangezur corridor”.

At the same time, Russian analysts write that the 44-day war of 2020 and subsequent developments have significantly weakened Moscow’s position in the South Caucasus.

The Russian newspaper Forbes writes in particular: Russia did not lose the war in the South Caucasus in September 2023, its units did not engage in a military confrontation with any of the parties. However, Moscow’s reputation suffered a major blow. And the arguments that even Yerevan has not recognized the independence of Artsakh do not interest broad sections of the population.

“It seems that Moscow, concentrating all its forces on the confrontation with Ukraine and the West, has simply reduced the priority of the Caucasus leadership. Moreover, the regional order is rapidly changing before our eyes,” writes “Forbes “.

But what actually happened?

Russia has been the target of everything Baku has done recently in Artsakh. Baku has slapped Russia with its latest actions.

First of all, Baku will take advantage of the created situation and try to drive Russian peacekeepers out of Artsakh.

Before launching Baku’s latest aggression against Artsakh, Putin said in Vladivostok that Russia must ensure the security of Artsakh’s civilian population. By its actions, Baku tried to show that Russia cannot do this.

In addition, the Azerbaijanis also fired on Russian peacekeepers, including the deputy commander.

The arrest of Ruben Vardanyan and others was also a serious slap in the face for Moscow, because everyone perceives him as a Russian oligarch, despite the fact that he renounced Russian citizenship.

In recent days, there were still people in Artsakh who were negotiating with the relevant Russian services after the 44-day war. Besides the moral aspect of the issue, the Azerbaijanis can get information from the arrested leaders of Artsakh, which Russia had already told them and which Baku may not have known about. Moreover, in exchange for all this, Baku can receive assets from Moscow that it will use against the Armenians.

To be continued….