Many factors contributed to Baku’s eventual victory in the long-running conflict with Armenia over Artsakh. Some factors have their origins in the complex history of the South Caucasus. Others refer to the disparity in size, population and resources between Armenia and Baku. Unlike Armenia, which has few natural resources, Baku is a country rich in energy resources and therefore capable of spending a lot of money on weapons, according to an article published in Responsible Statecraft of the American magazine Quincy Institute for Responsible Management.

Unfortunately for Armenia, Baku has also become more important to the West in light of the war in Ukraine. This meant that neither Europe nor the United States was willing to take serious risks to contain Baku.

Finally, international and regional geopolitical rivalries and Armenia’s vulnerable geopolitical position contributed to Armenia’s ultimate defeat. These factors included the broader competition between Russia and the West for control of Eurasia and Washington’s 30-year effort to contain and isolate Iran, denying Tehran any role in economic and security structures. emerging post-Cold War companies in the South Caucasus, and, more importantly, Baku, the Caspian and Central Seas in building pipelines to transport oil and gas from Asia to Western markets .

To achieve this goal, the United States and Europe have effectively given Turkey a leading role in the Caucasus and Central Asia, both as a model for Central Asian states and as a key regional partner for the West. Perhaps Armenia should have seized the signal and approached the West to try to reach an agreement with Turkey. But given Armenians’ history with the Ottoman Empire and Turkey, this was not easy to do and Yerevan instead decided to cooperate more closely with Russia.

Thus, the latest conflict in the Caucasus is not yet over and further clashes are expected, especially if Azerbaijan continues its resentment against Iran with the support of Turkey and Israel. In recent days, reports have emerged that Baku and Tehran are now trying to restore bilateral relations and are even considering opening a new transit route through Iranian territory to Nakhichevan, which could ease some of the main concerns from Tehran.

However, deep-rooted sources of tension between Iran and Azerbaijan are unlikely to be resolved quickly, and the risk of potential conflict therefore remains high, especially if Iran’s rivals put pressure on Baku. »