Baku and Ankara support the “3+3” format proposed by Tehran in the South Caucasus, in opposition to Western negotiation platforms. Iranian policy has always aimed to resolve this problem through dialogue between countries in the region. Even before the 44-day war in Artsakh, Tehran had spoken about it several times, and not only in the context of Artsakh, but also in the context of other regional conflicts and issues.
Only one meeting took place in this format, economic issues and unblocking of communications were included on the agenda, but not political issues. The Iranian expert stressed that the agenda of the 2nd meeting that Iranian leaders are trying to organize in Tehran is not yet known. The Iranian side wants political issues to be discussed, but the big question is whether the Turkish, Baku and Russian authorities will want the same thing. If we look at the facts, they have no such will. On the other hand, Baku has recently avoided Western negotiating platforms, supporting the idea that regional issues should be resolved with the participation of countries in the region itself.
It cannot be ruled out that Baku and Ankara will now advance the “3+3” format in order to neutralize other formats, in this case Western ones, which are not beneficial to them. A similar situation occurred in 2020, when Ankara and Baku did so against the Minsk Group format. “For them, it’s a backup option when they want to fail or put other formats in the background.
It should be remembered that Iran has always sought to play a mediating role.
Despite the activity of the Islamic Republic, other actors did not share this desire. We are not only talking about Ankara and Baku, but also about Moscow, which seeks to play an exceptional mediating role.
Even military operations between Israel and Hamas are unlikely to significantly divert Iran’s attention from the South Caucasus. If by 2020 During the war, Tehran paid less attention to the region, but today the situation has changed dramatically.
Even if Iran is busy in other directions, it is unlikely to lose sight of Artsakh and Syunik. In addition, the Iranian expert community connects the events in Palestine with our region, noting that this is a message to Ankara and Baku, the same type of resistance awaits them in the South Caucasus. It is worth recalling that despite the mass protests that took place in Iran in 2022, the country’s authorities conducted military exercises on the border with Azerbaijan, showing once again that they are “taking the pulse of the pulse “.
This map shows what will happen to Iran if Ankara one day manages to conquer Eastern Armenia. As we know, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan are Turkey’s allies. Given this, it becomes clear that if Turkey suddenly conquers Eastern Armenia, it will very quickly bring the entire Caucasus and Central Asia under its influence.