There is a widespread opinion in Armenian society that when the Ministry of Defense of Eastern Armenia frequently denies the statements of the Ministry of Defense of Baku, there is a risk of further military operations. Baku essentially states that the Armenian armed forces opened fire towards Azerbaijani positions, which the Armenian side denies. Let’s try to understand whether Baku is launching an information war before military operations, or whether this is just an opinion without factual basis.
We studied the publications of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia in 2021, 2022 and 2023, among which we distinguished messages refuting the statements of the Ministry of Defense of Baku. The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia denies more systematically from 2022. If in 2021 their number is seven and is not so clear, then in 2022 and 2023 their number has increased, the form of the denial has also changed. If in 2021 it was not clearly written in all messages that the statement was denied, then in 2022 and 2023 they are clear, because it is indicated which statement of the Azerbaijani side and with what content is denied.
The idea that the Azerbaijani side spreads erroneous information about the border situation before military operations can be considered objective with some reservation, transforming them into data.
The distribution of rebuttals over the course of 2022 is essentially irregular, with the exception of the month of September. In September 2022, the number of messages is 14, including 13 before September 14, i.e. almost daily. All this was followed on September 13, 2022, at 00:05, by the attack of units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces in the direction of the Armenian positions of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk, with artillery and large-caliber firearms.
In 2022, there have been cases of ceasefire violations at the border in other months as well, but it is difficult to link refusal messages to this information because the messages are mostly irregularly distributed from one month to the next.
We will soon present the 2023 studies