After the Artsakh war, a new “big game” started in the Transcaucasus and in the countries of neighboring Middle East, the main feature of which is Russia’s cooperation with Turkey. Azerbaijan is already a part of the game, and now Armenia also has such an opportunity. The only question is whether Pashinyan will be allowed to implement his plans or not?

After the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposed in Baku with the idea of creating “six” countries to work together to maintain peace in the Caucasus, urging Armenia to join the project, few expected Yerevan to respond so quickly.

However, at the sitting of the Security Council of Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that “it is necessary to improve relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, trying to find points of contact.” According to him, “there has been a change, the Azerbaijanis are stronger now, so he has to accept the situation.”

The objective justification, one point of which is to unblock all regional communications and to create a transport corridor through Armenia that will connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan. It is the main precondition for the normalization of relations between Yerevan and Baku and Yerevan and Ankara. 

Moreover, the normalization of relations with Turkey takes Armenia out of regional isolation, turning it into a country with a transit status with the ability to enter Europe. Previous attempts not to link the resumption of relations between Ankara and Yerevan with the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (Zurich Protocols, October 2009) were as unsuccessful as Pashinyan’s further efforts to revive the process “without preconditions.”

According to Russian expert on the Caucasus Sergey Markedonov, the Declaration of Independence of Armenia (considered an integral part of the country’s Basic Law) contains points concerning the need for international recognition of the Genocide of Armenians and points about “Western Armenia” mentioning the territorial issue. It is not a coincidence that Erdogan in his statement in Baku mentioned the need for Armenia to make appropriate decisions, as the first part of the “Nagorno Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Turkish reconciliation” equation is defined, if we mean the return of previously lost regions to Azerbaijani control. As for the Armenian-Turkish reconciliation, the two sides will have to overcome the existing  historical obstacles in order to start writing a new chapter in their history.

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