The creation of a land corridor through the column carries significant risks for Europe

  • by Western Armenia, November 27, 2023 in Politics

The issue of Artsakh is unlikely to be discussed after taking control of Baku in September. Other problems may arise for the security of Armenia if Baku decides to move further into the territory of Armenia. In order to prevent such an escalation, the European Union should intensify its diplomatic involvement, while working more actively in the direction of strengthening Armenia's social resilience and defense capabilities. This is stated in the article by Marie Dumoulin and Gustav Grossel, which was published on the ECFR portal.

During the ongoing peace negotiations between the two countries, the issue of border demarcation was raised. However, Baku leader Ilham Aliyev has regularly signaled his reluctance to agree on anything in a Western-led negotiating format, favoring instead a settlement involving "regional players" such as Russia and Turkey. The current military positions in Baku on the border with Armenia and the huge power imbalance between the two countries have also increased the Armenian government's fear of a possible invasion. It took Baku three weeks to prepare for the attack in Artsakh because it had military support from Turkey and Israel. An assault on Syunik could take about the same amount of time, and Baku would probably prefer to do so before winter. Creating a land corridor through Syunik carries significant risks for Europe, whether it is created militarily and under Baku's full control, or through negotiations and Russian through official control of troops. This would give Turkey and Azerbaijan, possibly with Russia's support, de facto control over the corridor connecting the Black and Caspian seas, one of the key routes connecting Europe with Central Asia and China.

The EU must act to prevent such a scenario by addressing short-, medium- and long-term challenges.